...But his political future remains in doubt

Issue Number: 
4
Author: 
Vera Kuznetsova
Published: 
1999-07-05


For the Russian delegation, last week's Salzburg International Economic Forum was more of a political event than an economic one.

Everyone in the Russian contingent - from the prime minister to democrats and financial and industrial "oligarchs" - spoke of the need for stability in the lead up to parliamentary elections this year and presidential elections in 2000.

The forum was in a way reminiscent of the 1996 Davos Economic Forum, where politicians and oligarchs alike agreed to throw their weight behind Boris Yeltsin's presidential campaign. It seems that for Russian politicians, it has become more convenient to meet abroad in order to agree on a course of action at home.

In the case of Yeltsin's 1996 re-election campaign, the Davos agreement bore fruit. Perhaps it is the favorable foreign climate that helps the Russian elite work together. This time, Salzburg was used to try to create a unified vision for the country, and to establish a course of action to achieve it.

At the gathering, Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin was deep in thought about the vaguely formed notion of creating a new political coalition under the title "Russia," attracted by the Polish example of transition from "socialism to democracy." Stepashin listened attentively, and with obvious interest in the views of Polish President Alexander Kwasniewski.

Ex-Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko did not miss the opportunity to exchange views with Kwasniewski either - and was invited by the Polish leader to visit his country. What has caught Kiriyenko's interest in Poland is the history of the Solidarity movement. Russia's young and ambitious ex-prime minister is now looking for a way to draw a younger generation of Russians into politics, an opportunity denied them by previous governments and politicians.

Kiriyenko sincerely believes the Solidarity experience to be a useful one. In this it seems he is not alone. Stepashin, though in no hurry to go public with his political ambitions, is studying political and economic models implemented by Russia's former Eastern European allies after the collapse of communism.

Stepashin came across both as a democrat and a Yeltsin loyalist in Salzburg, and gave the impression of being a very reasonable individual committed to reform.

"Making mistakes is not a reason in itself to turn backward," Stepashin said, admitting that in the past 10 years, there was much in Russia that was cause for regret. Stepashin pledged to "accomplish reforms while securing what has been achieved." He reminded the gathering of the joint statement produced at the G-8 summit in Cologne on the future of Russia, which read: "Russia should not turn into a bankrupt and an outcast."

Following Stepashin's speech, delegates produced conflicting scenarios on the prospects of Russia's prime minister.

Despite his personal affinity with Stepashin, Kiriyenko said the prime minister would probably be jettisoned in the near future. "No one cares about the economy in Russia at the moment," Kiriyenko said. "The threat to Stepashin is serious because his prime ministerial post is too attractive to those wanting a springboard for their own presidential candidate."

In contrast, politically connected billionaire tycoon Boris Berezovsky spoke of Stepashin's bright future. He said Stepashin had a real chance of becoming Russia's next president, but only on the condition that he "takes a tough stand in favor of reform." Commenting on the situation in Russia, Berezovsky used the same words Stepashin had when addressing the Duma. At one point it almost seemed as though they shared the same speechwriter.

Although Berezovsky drew a favorable picture of the prime minister, most observers saw his words as a political tactic rather than a sincere expression of his desire to see Stepashin at the country's helm.

What then to make of the Salzburg summit? Two points. It showed that democratic politicians have not yet exhausted their resources. And that Stepashin is not the last politician with real potential; indeed he is probably the first. On the other hand, Salzburg shattered any illusion that forging a political alliance of democrats, oligarchs and power representatives could avert the looming political crisis (dismissal of the Stepashin government).

That would be too simple.

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