Arrest and confrontation mar Putin's first 100 days

Issue Number: 
69
Author: 
Ekaterina Larina
Published: 
2000-07-08


President Vladimir Putin's first little milestone – his first 100 days in office since the March 26 elections – has been marked by a number of sensational events, statements and interim results.

But it still has not shed much light on what awaits the country under his presidency.

Opinion polls show that the public is still largely optimistic about Putin, in contrast to politicians and experts who are increasingly critical of Boris Yeltsin's chosen successor.

Last weekend, the Agency for Regional Political Studies surveyed 1,500 people, asking them how their attitude to Putin had changed over the first 100 days of his presidency. The results showed that 17 percent of those surveyed now had a higher opinion of the president, 14 percent said their opinion of him had worsened, and the majority – 58 percent – had not changed their opinion at all. Overall then, Putin has gained an extra 3 percent in support. But analysts say this support is still based largely on voters' expectations rather than tangible results.

A little over 100 days ago, on the eve of the presidential elections, most observers were pointing out that Putin had become the choice of disparate, sometimes conflicting, groups in society, because his program was based on general principles, easily open to broad interpretation.

Part of the communist and liberal electorates both considered Putin "theirs," and hoped that once he became president he would fulfill their hopes.

In the end, both are facing disappointment.

But that disappointment, too, comes in some very contradictory forms. Communist member and Duma Deputy Vasily Shandybin, known for his bald head and parliamentary fist-fights, is disappointed with the way the campaign against Media-MOST owner Vladimir Gusinsky "fell through."

"I placed a lot of hopes on Putin," Shandybin told The Russia Journal. "For a start, he said he'd fight the oligarchs, but the first [Gusinsky's arrest] fell through. The second disappointment is that the people will never get their assets back."

Chairman of the Russian Federation of Independent Trade Unions and Shandybin's Duma colleague, Andrei Isayev, is also disappointed, though for different reasons.

"I see that there has been a serious cooling-down when it comes to relations with the unions, cooperation and consultation on social issues," Isayev said. "Of course we're disappointed.

"The situation with Media-MOST also disappoints me," he said. "Not because I have much sympathy for Gusinsky, an oligarch is an oligarch. But I think the methods used smacked of something no good, though something very familiar.

"Of course it's no fun to be disappointed in this way," Isayev said. He said he thinks the president's entourage pushed Putin into adopting a mistaken strategy — attacking on all fronts and making enemies everywhere in the process, rather than setting a list of objectives and moving from one to the next.

"It's been an energetic 100 days," Isayev added. "But I don't think the strategy is in the president's favor. In just a short time, the president has galvanized against him regional leaders, a large part of the media, the oligarchs and the unions."

Isayev said the 100 days could be divided roughly into two periods — a period of decisive reform initiatives, and a period of cranking up the pressure, using a combination of closet political maneuvers and open force.

"The milestone was dividing Russia into seven federal districts. I think it's quite a constructive idea but the main point is to ensure it doesn't end up distorted," Isayev said.

He called the proposals to curtail governors' powers a positive idea, though its implementation is controversial. The negative period he saw as beginning with the attacks on Media-MOST and the law on the single social tax, which he said would undermine Putin's social support base.

But Isayev said Putin could still prove himself an independent leader and abandon this approach, which he thinks was imposed on him by Yeltsin's entourage. "I hope that this isn't the approach that fits Putin's own convictions. I still place great personal hopes in Putin, but I think we've come to a crucial moment.

"Either Putin will implement his program, which on the whole is democratic and answers the majority of his voters' hopes, or he won't manage to overcome the influence of several negative people and will become just a plaything in the hands of the group we call ‘the Family," he said.

Isayev said this was the choice now. He thinks Putin's course will have to change and hopes some of the authors of that course would be removed from the administration.

Deputy Chairman of the Duma committee on local government, Vladimir Lysenko, also saw this as a serious problem.

"The main task he has to resolve is Yeltsin's entourage," Lysenko said. "There are the same oligarchs, the same people in the Kremlin, and if he doesn't do something about this, he won't succeed in the mission he's been given — to complete economic reforms and create an effective political system to transform Russia into a democratic European nation."

Lysenko saw the conflict with Media-MOST and arrest of Gusinsky as part of this group's attempts to deal with the former oligarchs.

"These attacks against Media-MOST and this whole detective story with Gusinsky, and with Putin in the West at the time, dealt his reputation a serious blow," Lysenko added. "I think these steps did more to discredit Putin, and they also came from the entourage he inherited from Yeltsin."

He said he thinks Gusinsky's arrest was an attempt to frighten a certain group of oligarchs and the beginning of a re-division of spheres of influence and assets that were divided up under the ten years of Yeltsin's rule.

"The forces surrounding Putin have sensed a favorable moment and begun this process," Lysenko said. "Now they want to settle scores with those they couldn't get hold of under Yeltsin. They want to sort things out once and for all and monopolize the political and economic markets." He said that was very dangerous and that if the monopolization continued, Russia will teeter towards an authoritarian regime.

"The reforms initiated by Putin could be either an instrument for positive reform or could be used to monopolize power. I'm very concerned that they are taking us towards the monopolization of power."

Lysenko also expressed concern that conflict with the Federation Council could become an obstacle to economic reform.

"It's logical to reform power," he added. "Yeltsin let the country go to an almost feudal system. But Putin has taken the road of confrontation, and wants to solve all problems at once.

This can't work. War with the Federation Council won't bring him victory, and it's precisely the governors who tomorrow will have to implement his [economic] program. There won't be anyone else. The governors are elected after all.

"But because of this conflict, the reforms, which are quite liberal and radical will be obstructed in the regions. So I think he's complicated his economic tasks as well," Lysenko said.

Communist Shandybin still sees the highlight of Putin's 100 days as being the arrest of Gusinsky.

"The people took heart," Shandybin said of the brief period when the oligarch was under arrest. "But when Gusinsky was released we sensed weakness."

Search