On Nov. 7, the 82nd anniversary of the October Socialist Revolution, Moscow's Club 2015 presented its project titled "Scenarios for Russia," outlining a number of possible futures for Russia over the next 15 years.

A group of professional managers from several Russian and international companies began the project shortly after the August crisis of 1998, forming Club 2015. The club is seeking to make a realistic contribution to Russia's development and believes the optimal way to achieve this is by exercising intellectual influence over the electorate and parliamentary candidates on the eve of State Duma (lower house) elections in December.

The project's main goal is to fill the current vacuum of vision about Russia's options for development in the near future. It is this lack of vision for the country that scares a considerable section of the electorate, project initiators believe.

The club used the "scenario planning" technique to develop various possibilities for Russia, setting the time frame of 10 to 15 years into the future. It found a successful example of this work in the "Scenarios for South Africa" project. That project helped the opposing parties and peoples of South Africa agree on resolutions and compromises to their most critical issues, allowing them to avoid further political aggravation and possible civil war. It was the intense discussion of South Africa's possible development options that to a considerable extent facilitated the final agreement and peaceful transfer of power there.

Stage One of the project focused on gathering data on all key factors, forces and trends as well as major uncertainties that might be significant for Russia's development in the next 10 to 15 years. The data came from a series of 25 interviews with experts and individuals with a systemized vision of events, who could give a well-argued description and forecast of the situation.

A Scenario Group was then formed, made up of prominent economists, social and political analysts, historians, corporate CEOs from small, medium and large businesses, state officials, political figures and public activists, journalists, writers, cinema directors and political talk-show hosts from various television stations.

Stage Two saw the Scenario Group hold three discussions in three months to outline three scenarios using the data available from stage one. Each outline had to have a visible relationship to the main elements, with a possibility to forecast the consequences of any significant event.

Stage Three took place after the Scenario Group's work was over. A team of well-known writers and journalists used the outlines provided to write three stories, giving a captivating description of the possible course of events in Russia over the next 15 years.

 The Mega-Serbia Scenario ("The Poisoned Rake")

Russia fails to contain its national depression, both economic and psychological, which leads it into the trap of imperial nationalism.

 The Slow but Certain Scenario ("Tale of Time Lost")

Russia makes use of the favorable global economic environment to reverse the trend of a deteriorating standard of living for the population and overcomes the economic depression but loses its chance of returning to the global elite due to misguided priorities.

 The New Social Deal Scenario ("The Renaissance")

Russia realizes the degeneration of the existing social structure and manages to find adequate solutions for all challenges by focusing on reforming the system of power.

The Scenarios for Russia project was not an attempt to predict Russia's future. "A tale is tall but gives a hint to the wise," is the project initiators' motto.

The authors sought primarily to convey their scenarios' logic to those who can seriously influence the election through their deliberate political choice. The people involved in "Scenarios for Russia" do not have a strong political background, nor is the project related to a specific political organization - it is an initiative of a group of citizens and public institutions. Its participants are concerned with the present lack of positive concepts for the country's future and believe that defining such concepts would be a serious prerequisite for Russian society to overcome its present crisis.

Vladimir Pozner will produce a six-part TV show titled "The Time and Us," focusing on the Scenarios for Russia project and talking to audiences in six Russian cities: Novosibirsk, Ekaterinburg, Samara, Tver, Veliky Novgorod and Moscow. ORT will broadcast the program in November and December this year.