The dismissal of Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and the rest of the Russian cabinet by President Vladimir Putin may be a move driven by electoral fear – but it is wholly positive for the country in every possible way.

Electoral managers of President Putin are worried about reports of extremely low potential turnout in the upcoming March Presidential polls. There are reports suggesting that the turnout may be lower than 40 percent. The Kremlin has some ability to inflate those numbers but not to the extent that a 40 percent or lower turnout would require. This low turnout also means that most of the voters will be of old age, traditionally left-wing voters, which always show up to cast their ballot. If Sergei Glaziev withdraws his candidacy in favor of Communist Nikolai Kharitonov, Putin could be looking at a second round of voting, despite strong 70-80 percent approval ratings, because much of this low turnout will be Communist hardliners. This is a scenario Putin desperately needs to avoid and thus the antics of a cabinet dismissal to energize the public into coming out in favor of the President and his new team. Had it not been for this latest nuance in electoral turnouts, Putin would have inaugurated his new cabinet with himself in spring.

There is little doubt that Putin has also already chosen a new prime minister whom he is obliged to present within two weeks for approval before the State Duma. The list of candidates includes Alexei Kudrin, Igor Shuvalov, Sergei Ivanov and Victor Khristenko. There are other names that are also said will be considered including Dmitry Kozak and Sergei Stepashin.

Putin is keeping his cards close to his chest, but what is obvious is that he is making a clear break from his own first term and the Yeltsin era in a very demonstrable manner. The next Russia cabinet will have to be wholly distant from all the Oligarchs. The “5-7-10” businesspeople that Putin said “did not follow the law during years of privatization” will face some tough choices in the coming months. The choice will be between paying more taxes, or moving into “comfortable” accommodation in prison cells. The third choice is to abandon Russian business entirely and apply for asylum in Europe.

Kasyanov and his team were seen by President Putin as not being ambitious enough in carrying out liberal reform, but also as too cozy and sympathetic with tainted business groups and Oligarchs as well as too soft on tax evaders and economic criminals. Kasyanov stiffly resisted the President on the jailing of Khodorkovsky and wanted to preserve the status quo, or swing the levers of power into the hands of Khodorkovsky and his likes away from Putin and his loyalists.

There is little doubt that President wants to continue his pro-business, pro-investment policies, carry out substantial administrative reform, clip the wings of bureaucracy, keep taxes low, enable business creation and jobs in private sector, and pull the state treasury out of black-holes of the Russian economy – and he will most likely choose a cabinet that will be ambitious on all these fronts. President Putin wants to be seen as the chief-liberal of Russia and this is a position he will delegate to his prime minister. On the other hand, he would expect the legal proceedings against Yukos/Menatep as an example and would force a stronger hand against the erring big-business houses because he also wants to be the chief-strong man of Russia. The prime minister’s job is not to weaken the mantle that Putin will keep for himself. Kasyanov was too deeply enmeshed in the affairs of the family clan of Yeltsin’s daughter Tatiana Dyachenko, Oleg Deripaska and Roman Abramovich, and his dismissal signals an end to the superior influence of this clan in Russian government. President Putin was unable because of Kasyanov and his own chief of staff Alexander Voloshin (who resigned in protest against arrest of Khodorkovsky) to make the government equidistant from all Oligarchs. He has a chance now to show his integrity as well as leadership on the issue and follow through on the “5-7-10” promise to reign in the remaining oligarchs. Kasyanov was a saboteur to that process and President Putin would like a more loyal prime minister as that process gets underway.

Security issues have always been in the Kremlin’s own domain and are likely to remain. Putin will not delegate issues of security and sovereignty to a prime minister and economic issues such as sale of a strategically important oil or metal company to a Western corporation, which are seen as issues of national security and economic sovereignty by Putin. The next cabinet must subscribe to that ideology.

Putin needs a diversion away from the war in Chechnya and terrorist bombings in Moscow that helped him win the first election. He needs to change the agenda to a more positive one – more oriented towards the economy rather than security. What better than finally dismantling the last remaining vestiges of Boris Yeltsin’s corrupt regime and gathering some votes in the process.