The Duma's no-confidence vote in the government has failed. This should come as no surprise to anyone. The Duma, with some partial exceptions such as vote sponsors Yabloko and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF), has become the Kremlin's lapdog — they have learned that their position and, hence, their access to "business," depend on remaining in good standing with the powers-that-be.

God knows there are excellent reasons for the current government headed by Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov to go: Addiction to the status quo, corruption, and allegedly inflated economic growth-rate figures among them. However, the KPRF and Yabloko must have been aware that they had about as much chance of getting the vote approved as a young dark-skinned man has of passing a week on the streets of Moscow without being stopped by the police; in other words, next to none. This was almost certainly a political ploy to gather votes in the upcoming elections. After all, while President Vladimir Putin's ratings are somewhere in the upper empyrean, the cabinet that surrounds him is looked on with something ranging from distrust to contempt to outright hatred by many people.

However, another view has been circulated, aired at some length in the Christian Science Monitor by Fred Weir ("In Russia, a 'creeping coup'?", June 18, 2003). There, Weir cites analysts who say that unspecified oligarchs, unhappy with Putin's lack of support for big business, are conspiring in a sinister cabal to undermine the popular president.

Whatever one thinks about the president, striking a blow against big business is not a vice (or a virtue) one can accuse him of. Russia's oligarchs, with their immense wealth and control of the natural resources that are the country's lifeblood, form practically an informal part of the government themselves. At this point, Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky practically has almost as much influence on government policy as Kasyanov does.

Moreover, Putin, for all his earlier tough talk and control of the Duma, is actually a rather weak president. The laws he passes through the Duma are irrelevant to the oligarchs — they live in an Olympian realm far beyond the reach of any law-enforcement agency, tax collector or business regulator. In fact, insofar as Russian big business has shown movement toward abiding by the law, it has always come from its side, not the government's.

If the oligarchs as a class, or a group of them, really wanted to take down the president, they would have a far more effective weapon at their disposal than playing little games with the Duma and government. They have the power to wreck the country if they so desire — and Putin along with it. The extent of the leverage Russia's pantheon of superwealthy businessmen" possess, not to mention the power they have to effectively buy the Duma should not be underestimated. The Russian government is full of Dick Cheney’s, the caretakers of big business — and, in some cases, they do not even bother putting a dividing line between their business and political interests. Any talk of “oligarchs vs., Putin” is much like saying “American big business wants to get rid of Cheney and Bush and replace them with Al Gore.” Putin and the oligarchs are too comfortable with each other for the country’s own good. The voters might force a change in the government and in the presidency — but never the oligarchs.

No, we will not likely see any coups, creeping or otherwise, on the part of the oligarchs. Putin's state is former President Boris Yeltsin's country of oligarchic capital in a crystallized, stable state. The oligarchs no longer fight among each other so fiercely because they are happy with what they have and are focused on selling it to foreign corporations, which is what is really behind the "stability" that characterizes the Putin regime. The regime and the oligarchs need each other; the government agrees to let them be, and they agree to put some of their vast profits into the federal treasury. There is no reason to start feeling sorry for Mr. Putin — he has not ruffled any feathers. Why should he worry about his being ruffled in return?