
The prime minister has a 2 percent rating in public opinion polls. He was appointed by a lame-duck president with similarly microscopic approval ratings. Does that constitute the makings of a successful presidential campaign?
That's what political analysts across the country are asking.
President Boris Yeltsin has anointed Prime Minister Vladimir Putin his successor - something that would normally amount to a political death sentence.
But despite the Kremlin's dark shadow hanging over him, analysts are not ruling out the possibility of Putin's winning the presidency.
"I think if he participates in the presidential race, his chances will be very high," said Gleb Pavlovsky, head of the Foundation of Effective Politics, a Moscow think tank.
"There is the power of incumbency he enjoys as prime minister - something that should not be underestimated. Who knew Stepashin before his appointment? Yet now he has a presidential rating, and Putin will have the same," Pavlovsky added.
Nikolai Popov, a scientific consultant at the Regional Political Research Agency, agrees. He believes aspects of Putin's persona that currently appear negative could be transformed into assets if used intelligently.
"Putin obviously needs to tactfully distance himself from the Kremlin and Yeltsin. But his reputation as a KGB officer - anathema to outside observers - could attract the support of a certain amount of the Russian electorate," he said.
"I have noticed that he has become a bit smoother," Popov observed. "So if he manages to convey this, along with the image of a strong person with a steady hand, it could play well."
Putin is believed to have initially hesitated about a presidential run.
But former first deputy head of the presidential administration, Oleg Sysuyev, said according to his information, Putin is beginning to appreciate the attractiveness of the presidential throne.
"It seemed to me that he initially had a problem with his own desire [for the presidency]," Sysuyev said. "But people now tell me this is no longer the case."
Sources close to Putin say the prime minister is currently seriously considering options for transforming his image. Three possibilities have come to the fore.
The first came from Kremlin political advisers: to try to foster the perception of Putin as a modern-day Yury Andropov.
Andropov led the Soviet Union for 15 months after having headed the KGB. Despite the fear the secret police inspired among the population in those days, Andropov is remembered as an honest man who sought to bring order to the country, chiefly by combating corruption.
After Putin was appointed prime minister, many commentators immediately drew the comparison. As a former secret service chief, Putin - with his reserved attitude and steely glaze - looked every inch the spy.
Andrei Ryabov of the Carnegie Endowment Center believes the Andropov image is powerful and resonates with the electorate. But he says Yevgeny Primakov, the former premier and front-runner in presidential polls, is more likely to successfully exploit it.
"Primakov was also in the secret service and symbolizes political stability. Putin simply does not have the time to be able to match the former prime minister in constructing the Andropov persona," Ryabov argued.
Pavlovsky dismisses the Andropov analogy. "It's a silly retrospective observation," he said. "Andropov's image was based on the power he had accumulated before [he became leader], and he was appointed, not elected.
"Moreover, in relation to the fight against corruption, Andropov's successes were less than impressive. What counts is that a person is not tainted by corruption. In that sense, Putin is in a strong position," Pavlovsky said.
Another option discussed in the narrow circle surrounding the prime minister is that of a "Chubais with a human face." The authors of this strategy believe that presenting Putin as possessing former First Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Chubais' reformist zeal in a more electorally palatable manner could prove attractive.
But from the point of view of a professional pollster such as Nikolai Popov, the suggestion is doubtful, bordering on the absurd.
"There is no electorate for Chubais in this country now," Popov said. "Besides, it is impossible to combine a powerful determination to implement liberal reforms with attention to the social sector. The two are incompatible."
The last possibility is for the prime minister to create and develop his own image. But both Pavlovsky and Ryabov expressed bemusement with the idea.
"It's nonsense to talk about constructing someone's charisma. A person either has it or doesn't. And in Putin thus far, I haven't noticed any charisma," Pavlovsky said.
"Putin simply does not have the personality," Ryabov concurred. "He looks like a good secret service agent, but he is not a public politician."
But other experts said a security service background does more than just impress the population. That three presidential "pretenders" - Primakov, Stepashin and Putin - hail from the security services is not just coincidence to many political observers.
The Federal Security Service (FSB), a successor to the KGB, is the only institution that still has a network in the regions, Ryabov said. The organization knows what is happening outside the capital, giving Russia's last three prime ministers a solid understanding of the country's provinces.
Pavlovsky says regional governors are now most interested in solving the problem of Russia's succession of power and will take the new prime minister seriously.
"If Putin proposes a real answer to the succession question, he has a chance [for the presidency]. It is not how the masses respond [to Putin] that is important, but what the regional elite thinks," Pavlovsky argued. "The governors want access to federal government support."
However, Ryabov sees no possibility of Putin's taking the top job "short of subverting the constitution by canceling elections."
"There is too little time to 'sell him' to the electorate," Ryabov said. Furthermore, the level of distrust among the population toward the Kremlin - of which Putin is a representative - is so strong that it is impossible for him to become president by democratic means."